STI Technical Rebound Could Be Over

February 26, 2010 § Leave a comment

STI 25th Feb 2010

STI’s technical rebound could be over, as shown by the weakening stochastic, after barely touching the oversold region.

Typical of most downtrend, stochastic should turn down rather quickly after hitting oversold levels, generating a sell signal.

The current peak is also lower than the previous peak in the stochastic, signalling further weakness.

Although there are chances that stochastic would rise, it appears unlikely :

1. The previous uptrend line is currently acting as the resistance

2. The congestion area around 2770 is also proving a hard resistance to break , as evidence by the previous sessions. This could also be an indication that distribution has already occured around the area.

Hence, holding onto stocks at the moment in the hope of breaching 2770 is a very risky task to undertake.

More importantly, if the index should fall, it would have completed a double top chart pattern where the right peak is lower than the left.

This should trigger more panic selling and may breach the 2700 support rather quickly.

Alot of global indices are also showing similar chart patterns. It pays to err on the side of caution, and live to trade another day.

However, all is not loss.

Current market present a good shorting opportunity, with cut loss at 2770.

Increase position further if 2700 support is broken with stop loss at slightly above 2700.

Rethinking SingPost

February 10, 2010 § Leave a comment

SingPost 09th Feb 2010

Surprise, surprise….

The once, often touted defensive stock has turned offensive since October.

It has been rising quietly on an uptrend even during the recent sell off.

It ended today on higher than usual volume.

Cut loss at $1.01

Hong Leong Asia Showing Trend Resilience

February 10, 2010 § Leave a comment

Hong Leong Asia 9th Feb 2010

One of the super star stocks during the crisis recovery.

Whereas the other super star stocks has taken a beating during the recent sell off,

Hong Leong Asia is still trending strongly upwards. This is in part due to most of the super star stocks were commodities related plays.

On a chart basis,  the trendline and support level has intersected at $3.2, with the trendline giving a stronger support as time progresses.

GMMA has found some support and looks like it may turn up, together with stochastic which almost touched the oversold region.

Cut loss at $3.2, though the chance of breaking this level looks tough.

However, if it does break, a head and shoulder pattern may emerge.

On the global front, the indices charts looks technically challenging.

Any rapid rebound rally is likely to cause a double top, where the 2nd peak is lower than the previous peak.

The subsequent dip will determine if the downtrend will be a prolonged one or a major consolidation is in progress.

Swiber Well Supported

February 4, 2010 § Leave a comment

Swiber 3rd Feb 2010

Swiber is a low risk trade because of the following :

1. uptrend is still intact. Only a handful of counters are still maintaining their uptrend.

2. stochastics at oversold level.

3. Support level of $1.01 is below trend line

4. Risen today on high volume

Cut loss at $1.00

Where Am I?

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